Coproduction & Climate Services

In the coproduction of climate services [1] theme, my work explores ways to align the supply of information with its demand in order to support the transformations that are needed to address complex problems on the horizon for marine sectors[2, 3, 4]. Innovation in marine meteorological forecasts for sustainable development.

My research emphasizes the value of experiential methods such as simulation-gaming and the importance of considering socioeconomic futures when the produced knowledge/policy informs/governs actors who operate in rapidly changing, high-stakes decision environments [5, 6]. Visit the ICEWISE Simulation page to find out more. Through my research I promote futures literacy and decision-relevant information to enhance sectoral and societal resilience in fast-changing environments [7, 8, 9].

My latest publication in Climate Services is about generating trust toward new sea ice information products for increased adoption by users, better-informed risk decisions, and reduced vulnerability of marine mobility sectors:

Mind the gap! A consensus analysis of users and producers on trust in new sea ice information products

In the ice-infested Arctic Ocean environment, the uptake of new sea ice services is an important factor in ensuring safe and efficient marine operations. Producers increasingly turn to co-production for user input, similar to the wider field of climate services. This paper asks how the uptake of sea ice information services can be optimized, by gauging the extent to which producers and users already share an understanding of how trust develops toward new products. […] We chose cultural consensus analysis, a method that produces valid estimates even in small sample sizes. Our survey presented thirty-two propositions […] Our results suggest that forecast producers for the Arctic region, specifically in the field of specialized sea ice predictions and mapping/charting, share a substantial understanding with users about how trust develops toward new products. We discuss the importance of automation, peer endorsement and perceptions of cost-performance ratio for necessary strategic approaches […] LINK TO PAPER here


  1. M. Máñez Costa, A.M.P. Oen, T.-S. Neset, L. Celliers, M Suhari, J-T. Huang-Lachmann, R. Pimentel, B. Blair, J. Jeuring, E. Rodriguez-Camino, C. Photiadou, Y.J. Columbié, C. Gao, N.-C. Tudose, A. Cheval, S., Votsis, J. West, K. Lee, L.C. Shaffrey, C. Auer, H. Hoff, I. Menke, P. Walton, S. Schuck-Zöller. Co-production of Climate Services: A diversity of approaches and good practice from the ERA4CS projects (2017–2021). CSPR Report No 2021:2, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research, Norrköping, Sweden. [URL]

2. Rautenbach, C., & Blair, B. (2021). Marine Meteorological forecasts for Coastal Ocean Users–Perceptions, Usability and Uptake. Geoscience Communication. DOI: 10.5194/gc-2020-50

3. Blair, B., Lee, O. A., & Lamers, M. (2020). Four Paradoxes of the User–Provider Interface: A Responsible Innovation Framework for Sea Ice Services. Sustainability, 12(2), 448.

4. Lamers, M.A.J., Knol, M., Müller, M., Blair, B., Jeuring, J.H.G., Rasmussen, T. and Sivle, A., (2018). Enhancing the Saliency of climate services for marine mobility sectors in European Arctic seas (SALIENSEAS): Stakeholder Advisory Group workshop report. Wageningen University. [URL]

5. Blair, B., Muller, M., Palerme, C., Blair, R., Crookall, D., & Lamers, M. (2020, May). ICEWISE: A game to test the effects of sea ice forecast reliability on voyage planners’ confidence. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (p. 19882).

6. Blair, B., Malte, M., Palerme, C., Blair, R., Crookall, D., Knoll-Kauffman, M., Lamers, M. (in review). Coproducing Sea-Ice Predictions Using Simulation-Gaming. Weather, Climate and Society.

7. Blair, B. and Muller-Stoffels, M. (2019). Maritime Futures 2035: The Arctic Region: Workshop Report & Technical Documentation. Wageningen University. [URL]

8. Preston, B.L., Lovecraft, A.L., Cost, D., Blair, B, Lee, O., Hillmer-Pegram, K., Wesche, S., Hum, R., Absar, M., Ernst, K., Fresco, N. (2017). Scenarios Thinking for the Bering / Chukchi / Beaufort Region. In Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) of the Arctic Council, Oslo, Norway. [URL]

9. Lovecraft, A.L., Fresco, N., Cost, D., Blair, B. (2018). Northern Alaska Scenarios Project Report. International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks. [URL]

Select publications, reports and poster presentations from this research theme: